Saturday, January 27, 2018

BROKER's DIGEST January 29 2018

AEM Holdings (Jan 24: $4.31)
- MAINTAIN ADD
- AEM has raised its FY2017 pre-tax profit guidance to a range of between $35 million and $37 million
- We raised our EPS forecasts by 16.2% for FY2017 and 33.6%/31.3% for FY2018/19
- Given the higher earnings forecasts, our price target is raised to $5.97

Cache Logistics Trust (Jan 24: 86.5 cents)
- MAINTAIN HOLD
- With Cache reportedly looking at acquiring a sizeable logistics portfolio in Australia, if successful, this might prove to be the turning point
- Our price target is adjusted upwards to 90 cents on the back of lower cost-of-equity assumptions, with potential upside if debt headroom is deployed into acquisitions

Frasers Centrepoint Trust (Jan 24: $2.31)
- BUY
- 1QFY2018 DPU of $3, up 3.8% y-o-y, was in line with both consensus and our estimates
- We believe the shares have not fully priced in the stronger rental reversions and possible upside from acquisitions
- We raise our DDM-based price target by 4% to $2.55 after revising up DPUs.

Frasers Commercial Trust (Jan 24: $1.51)
- MAINTAIN BUY
- Consensus has a "hold" call, owing to concerns that FCOT is ex-growth
- The news that HP will stagger its exit from Alexandra Technopark finally removes the HP lease uncertainty as an overhand on FCOT.
- We maintain our DCF-based price target of $1.71, with 10% capital upside and attractive 6.4% yield

Frencken Group (Jan 24: 64.5 cents)
- Buy (initiating coverage)
- A high tech manufacturer with a diversified portfolio of blue-chip customers in various industries, Frencken represents an excellent proxy to Europe's economic recovery
- We believe Frencken's dividend will continue and we expect attractive yields of 3.5% and 3.8% for FY2017 and FY2018, respectively
- PER-based price target of 79 cents, implying 33.9% upside

Keppel DC REIT (Jan 24: $1.46)
- DOWNGRADE TO HOLD
- KDCREIT's 4QFY2017 results met our expectations
- After fine-tuning our assumptions, we lower our FY2018 and FY2019 DPU forecasts by 1.3% and 3.6%, respectively
- However our fair value inches up from $1.50 to $1.51

M1 (Jan 24: $1.87)
- MAINTAIN NEUTRAL
- M1's 4QFY2017 core earnings fell 6% q-o-q on seasonally higher handset cost and depreciation expense
- We make no change to our forecast but roll over our valuation base year. 
- A slightly higher DCF-derived price target of $1.95 (from $1.90, 4.3% upside)

Sembcorp Marine (Jan 24: $2.52)
- UPGRADE TO BUY
- Our investment thesis assumes: (a) SembMarine sees a revival of new orders to $4 billion in 2018, ending a two-year slump; and (b) the company's balance sheet risks are resolve and net gearing falls to less than 30% by 2018, from 131% in 3QFY2017
- At our price target of $3.06, the stock would trade at 2.4x FY2018E P/BV, slightly above its long-term mean P/BV of 2.3x.

Singapore Exchange (Jan 24: $8.40)
- MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM
- SGX reported 2QFY2018 net profit of $88 million, down 3% q-o-q and flat y-o-y, 6% behind our estimates but broadly in line with consensus
- With good momentum in both securities and derivatives business, we expect SGX to return to earnings growth after five years.  Price target of $8.70

(Source:  TheEdgeSingapore January 29 2018)


Monday, January 22, 2018

Brokers Digest 22 Jan 2018

City Developments (Jan 17: $13.40)
- MAINTAIN BUY
- Given stronger market conditions, we update our model for firmer average price (ASP) assumptions and lower our discount to revalued NAV from 20% to 10%
 - Our fair value estimate increases from $13.50 to $15.30

Food Empire Holdings (Jan 17: 69 cents)
- MAINTAIN BUY
- Based on our estimate, the group has an exposure of around US$10 million to Caffe Bene, representing 4% of its market capitalisation
- Price target of 69 cents

Keppel-KBS US REIT (Jan 17: 91 US cents)
- BUY (initiating coverage)
- Keppel-KBS US REIT's DPU is expected to grow 6% over FY2018 and FY2019
- DCF-based price target of 95 US cents

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (Jan 17: $13.18)
- MAINTAIN BUY
- We expect OCBC to register positive loan growth of 1.5% q-o-q in 4QY2017
- We have tweaked our earnings model to incorporate the transition to FRS 109.  Our price target of $14.88 is based on 1.58x 2018F P/BV, which is derived from the Gordon Growth Model

SATS (Jan 17: $5.77)
- DOWNGRADE TO HOLD
- As highlighted before, strong traffic growth at Changi Airport, which we believe will benefit SATS as the dominant ground handling provider at Changi Airport
- Over the longer term, we remain positive over SATS' outlook.  Consequently, we raise our FY2018F to FY2022F EPS by 2% to 8% and increase our fair value to $5.50

Singapore Airlines (Jan 17: $11.03)
- MAINTAIN BUY
- The parent airline's passenger load factor rose 1.9ppt y-o-y in December 2017 as pax traffic increased 3.1% y-o-y with little change in seat capacity
- No change to our earnings estimates.  Price target of $11.90.

Singapore Press Holdings (Jan 17: $2.69)
- MAINTAIN HOLD
- Core operating profit for 1QFY2018 was $76.7 million, in line with expectations
- We expect FY2018F DPS to be maintained at 15 cents.  The declining ad spend outlook should be mitigated by staff rationalisation, which would help to support operating earnings and DPS.
- Price target of $2.78

Starhub (Jan 17: $2.95)
- MAINTAIN HOLD
- Our DCF-based price target is raised 12% to $2.80 after (a) fine-tuning our opex/capex assumptions to avoid the risk of being overly conservative, (b) including the potential value creation from its recent acquisitions, and (c) deferring the negative impact from TPG's market entry to FY2019F
- A good entry point is below $2.50 (bear case) and exit point above $3.10 (bull case)

Wilmar Int'l (Jan 17: $3.24)
- MAINTAIN BUY
- We expect Wilmar to report a 4QFY2017 core profit of US$360 million to US$380 million
- We forecast an EPS of 16.5 US cents, 19.8 US cents and 22.7 US cents for FY2017 to FY2019 respectively
- Sum-of-the-parts-based price target of $4.10

(Source:  TheEdgeSingapore January 22 2018)


Saturday, January 13, 2018

Brokers' Digest 15 Jan 2018

Capitaland (Jan 10: $3.77)
- BUY. Continue to see value in  CapitaLand
- Price target of $4.35 based on a 10% discount to adjusted RNAV of $4.81 per share

Citic Envirotech (Jan 10: 73.5 cents)
- MAINTAIN BUY.  CEL announced a placement of 83.2 million shares at 85 cents each, with new partners willing to accept at 14.8% premium
- We raise our 2017 to 2019 net profit forecasts by 4.1%, 6.3% and 7.6% respectively
- DCF based price target of $1.09

Cityneon Holdings (Jan 10: $1.02)
- MAINTAIN BUY.  Cityneon has signed a term sheet with Fabulous to set up a digital media signage board at the Marvel exhibit in Las Vegas
- We raise our 2018 and 2019 net profit estimates by 3.3 and 2.5% respectively
- A higher price target of $1.56 (previously $1.50), pegged to peer's average of 15.4x FY2018F PER

Keppel Corp (Jan 10: $7.92)
- MAINTAIN BUY.  Keppel's property segment remains under valued at 0,.9x P/BV, below Singapore's developers' 1x, notwithstanding Keppel's huge historical land bank of 6.5 million sq m at lower cost
- Our price target of $9.80 is based on sum-of-the-parts valuation.  Our price target translates into 1.3x FY2018 P/BV
Mapletree Logistics Trust (Jan 10: $1.35)
- BUY.  Mapletree Logistics Trust has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with a third-party vendor to acquire the remaining 38% strata share value of Shatin No 3 in Hong Kong
-  Funding will come from bank borrowings and internal funds, such that its aggregate leverage ratio is expected to increase to 39% post-transaction
- Fair value estimate of $1.35 for now

OUE Commercial REIT (Jan 10: 74.5 cents)
- MAINTAIN HOLD.  On the back of a nascent recovery for the office market in Singapore in 2017, we see robust sentiments extending into 2018.
- Valuations for OUECT are not particularly cheap at this juncture. 
- OUECT's 12 month blended forward consensus dividend yield has now compressed to 6.4%
- Fair value estimate of 67 cents

OUE Hospitality Trust (Jan 10:  88 cents)
- MAINTAIN HOLD.  The growth in passenger movements at Changi Airport remains strong
- After adjusting our model parameters on the lowered average cost of debt, our fair value increases from 82 cents to 83 cents and we expect a 6.2% FY2018F yield against Jan 4's closing price.
- We still do not find OUEHT's current unit price compelling, though we remain most positive on OUEHT of the four hospitality REITs under our coverage

Singapore Post (Jan 10: $1.24)
- MAINTAIN HOLD.  2017 has been a mixed bag for SingPost
- For FY2018F we forecast flattish underlying earnings with growth in FY2019F
- Fair estimate of $1.26

VENTURE Corp (Jan 10: $22.48)
- Buy (initiating coverage).  Venture is an electronics manufacturing services provider and original design manufacturer with facilities in Singapore, Malaysia and China.
- Our FY2018 EPS is 17% higher than consensus
- We value Venture at 18.8x FY2018E PER, a 1-% premium over its global high-mix, low-volume peers, given our estimated 21% EPS CAGR for FY2017 to FY2019E versus 12%.
- Price target of $27.50


(Source:  The EdgeSingapore January 15 2018)